As die Sjinese ekonomie nie groei dryf nie, wat sal?

Wanneer mens praat oor ekonomiese vooruitsigte vir volgende jaar gaan dit oor ʼn balans van internasionale en plaaslike faktore. Ek wil nie nou enige iets voorspel nie, maar daar is groot veranderinge om ʼn oog op te hou.

Die groot een vir die korttermyn is dat Sjina nie meer die groot drywer van die wêreld se ekonomiese groei gaan wees nie. Na die 2009 finansiële krisis het baie kommoditeitsuitvoerders aanhou groei omdat Sjina gegroei het, maar die groei van Sjinese ekonomie word op die oomblik gedemp deur swak binnelandse vraag en deflasie. As daardie enjin stadiger loop gaan nasionale beleide meer belangrik wees.

Die ander groot neiging is klimaatsverandering. Die aanpassing daarby en stappe om dit teen werk gebeur nie vinnig nie, maar dit is aan die gang. Die gebruik van hernubare energie, elektriese voertuie ens gaan net verder toeneem. Dit gaan olie-, steenkool- en aardgas-uitvoerders raak. Koolstofinhoud-belastings kom of ons voel dit is regverdig of nie.

Daar was ʼn interessante stukkie spekulasie op die Marginal Revolution blog oor watter lande beter af behoort te wees as wat hulle is. Byvoorbeeld, Eritrea is op ʼn belangrike handelsroete, maar het nie veel om daarvoor te wys nie. Venezuela en Kuba was vroeër beter af maar is nou arm lande in Latyns-Amerika.

As nasionale beleide meer belangrik is as wêreldwye drywers van groei wat sou dit behels? Tyler Cowan argumenteer dat kultuur en vlakke van vertroue in die gemeenskap gaan bepaal hoe oop ʼn ekonomie is vir innovasie, en vir produktiewe immigrante. Dit is ʼn goeie toets vir ons eie politieke partye se beleidsvoorstelle so voor ʼn verkiesing. Is hulle oop vir besigheid, of wil hulle die ekonomie probeer beheer en beïnvloed?

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Foute en weglatings is my eie.

What will drive growth if it is not the Chinese economy?

When talking about economic prospects for next year, it is about a balance of international and local factors. I don’t want to make any predictions now, but there are major trends to keep an eye on.

The big one for the short term is that China will no longer be the major driver of the world’s economic growth. After the 2009 financial crisis, many commodity exporters continued to grow as China grew, but the growth of the Chinese economy is currently being dampened by weak domestic demand and deflation. If that engine slows down, national policies will be more important.

The other big trend is climate change. The adaptation and mitigation steps are not happening quickly, but they are underway. The use of renewable energy, electric vehicles etc. will only continue to increase. This will affect oil, coal and natural gas exporters. Carbon content border taxes are coming whether we feel they are fair or not.

There was an interesting bit of speculation on the Marginal Revolution blog about which countries should be better off than they are. For example, Eritrea is on an important trade route but doesn’t have much to show for it. Venezuela and Cuba used to be better off but are now poor countries in Latin America.

So, if national policies are more important than global drivers of growth what would that entail? Tyler Cowan argues that culture and levels of trust in the community will determine how open an economy is to innovation, and to productive immigrants. This is a good test for the policy proposals of our own political parties before next year’s election. Are they open for business, or do they want to try to control and influence the economy?

This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Errors and omissions are my own.

Indiensname het toegeneem, maar wat weet ons van hierdie werke?

(my Afrikaanse episode trek ongelukkig nie vandag deur na Spotify nie, maar hier is die teks)

Volgens die kwartaallikse arbeidsmagopname het indiensname toegeneem in die derde kwartaal en die werkloosheidskoers afgeneem. As dit te goed klink om waar te wees, onthou dat die maandelikse aanwysers wat wys dat die ekonomie swaar gekry het in die derde kwartaal, wys dat die sektore waar produksie afgeneem het, ook dié is waar werke verlore gegaan het, spesifiek vervaardiging en mynbou. Maar wat weet ons dan van die werk wat geskep is?

Die syfers wat volg plaas die fokus op die 399 000 nuwe werksgeleenthede wat geskep is van die tweede na derde kwartaal en die persentasies is uitgedruk in terme van die nuwe werke. Min of meer 87% van die nuut-indiensgeneemdes is vroue en 86% is in StatsSA se “Black/African” kategorie. In terme van ouderdomsgroepe was 28% tussen 25 en 34 jaar oud en nog 29% tussen 35 en 44 jaar oud. Ongeveer 38% van die nuwe werke is KwaZulu-Natal geskep, met 7% in Gauteng en 5% in die Wes-Kaap.

Ongeveer 59% van die nuwe werke is in die breë finansiële dienste sektor geskep en 30% in gemeenskaps- en sosiale dienste. As mens na die beroepe kyk is 36% van die nuwe werke vir masjien en toerusting-operateurs en 32% in verkope en dienste. Die QLFS gee ook bietjie besonderhede oor die aard van die kontrakte van hierdie nuwe werke. Dit is meestal voltydse werke met 81% wat meer as 40 ure per week werk. Die meerderheid van die nuut aangesteldes kry wel betaalde verlof kry, maar daar is nie ʼn pensioenfondsbydrae of werkloosheidsversekeringsfondsbydrae nie. Meeste van die werke kom ook nie saam met vakbondlidmaatskap nie.

Ek is nie mooi seker wat hierdie vir ons sê nie, maar dit kleur verseker die prentjie bietjie in.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur Economic Research Southern Africa en die NWU Sakeskool.

Foute en weglatings is my eie.

Photo by Frankie Lopez on Unsplash

Employment increased, but what do we know about those jobs?

According to the quarterly labour force survey, employment increased in the third quarter and the unemployment rate decreased. If it sounds too good to be true, remember that the monthly indicators showing that the economy struggled in the third quarter show that the sectors where production declined are also those where jobs were lost, specifically manufacturing and mining. But then what do we know about the jobs that were created?

The figures that follow focus on the 399 000 new jobs that were created from the second to the third quarter and the percentages are expressed in terms of those new job opportunities. More or less 87% of the newly employed are women and 86% are in StatsSA’s “Black/African” category. In terms of age groups, 28% were between 25 and 34 years old and another 29% were between 35 and 44 years old. Around 38% of the new jobs were created in KwaZulu-Natal, with 7% in Gauteng and 5% in the Western Cape.

Around 59% of the new jobs were created in the broad financial services sector and 30% in community and social services. Looking at the occupations, 36% of the new jobs are for machine and equipment operators and 32% in sales and services. The QLFS also gives some details about the nature of the contracts of these new jobs. These are mostly full-time jobs with 81% working more than 40 hours a week. The majority of the newly appointed do get paid leave, but there is no pension fund contribution or unemployment insurance fund contribution. Most of the jobs also do not come with union membership.

I’m not quite sure what this tells us, but it certainly adds some colour to the picture.

This episode is supported by Economic Research Southern Africa and the NWU Business School.

Errors and omissions are my own.

Photo by Josh Beech on Unsplash

Kommoditietspryse en ons mynbedryf

Die Wêreldbank het die afgelope week ʼn paar interessante voorspellings gemaak oor kommoditeitspryse, vanaf die olieprys tot die goudprys. As hulle reg of verkeerd is kan dit belangrike gevolge inhou vir ons ekonomie.

Die Wêreldbank voorspel dat meeste kommoditeitspryse gaan afneem, maar die groot val is in die steenkoolprys. Hulle voorspel ʼn 26% daling in 2024 en nog 15% in 2025. Dit is omdat die vraag na steenkool in Sjina en Indië stadiger gaan groei in die VSA en Europese Unie se vraag gaan afneem. In Sjina se geval is dit omdat hulle ekonomie stadiger groei en hulle ʼn kleiner vraag na elektrisiteit het. In Sjina en Indië word daar ook meer hidro-elektriese krag opgewek. In die VSA word meer hernubare energie gebruik en in Europa weer meer gas.

Die ander voorspellings is dat die verlangsaming van konstruksie aktiwiteit in Sjina die ystererts prys gaan laat val. Hulle verwag dat die Brent ru-olieprys effens gaan daal, maar dat die goudprys baat gaan vind by geo-politieke onsekerheid en die moontlikheid dat rentekoerse in die VSA volgende jaar gaan begin daal. Die palladium prys het ook begin verswak omdat elektriese voertuie minder palladium benodig.

Vir Suid-Afrika kan laer kommoditeitspryse ons mynboubedryf knou, werksgeleenthede in gedrag bring en die staat se belastinginkomste uit die bedryf verder laat kwyn. Dit is juis hoekom dit so belangrik is om die logistieke probleme wat Transnet veroorsaak op te los. Ons mynboumaatskappye kan nie nog struikelblokke bekostig nie.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Foute en weglatings is my eie.

Photo by Dominik Vanyi on Unsplash

Commodity prices and our mining industry

In the past week, the World Bank has made some interesting predictions about commodity prices, from the price of oil to the price of gold. Whether they are right or wrong price changes will have important consequences for our economy.

The World Bank predicts that most commodity prices will decrease, but the big fall is in the price of coal. They predict a 26% drop in 2024 and another 15% in 2025. This is because the demand for coal in China and India will grow more slowly in the US and the European Union’s demand will decrease. In China’s case, this is because their economy is growing more slowly and they have a smaller demand for electricity. In China and India more hydroelectric power is also being generated. In the US more renewable energy is used and in Europe again more gas.

The other predictions are that the slowdown in construction activity in China will cause the iron ore price to fall. They expect the Brent crude oil price to fall slightly, but that the gold price will benefit from geo-political uncertainty and the possibility that interest rates in the US will start to fall next year. The palladium price has also started to weaken because electric vehicles require less palladium.

For South Africa, lower commodity prices could hurt our mining industry, reduce employment opportunities and further erode the government’s tax revenue from the industry. This is precisely why it is so important to solve the logistical problems that Transnet is causing. Our mining companies cannot afford more obstacles.

This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Errors and omissions are our my own.

Photo by Dominik Vanyi on Unsplash

Die aanwysers is nie net “nog slegte nuus” nie

Verlede week het Statistieke Suid-Afrika die vervaardiging- en mynbou-sektore se produksie en verkope syfers vir September bekend gemaak. In vergelyking met September verlede jaar en in vergelyking met die afgelope Augustus was produksie minder. Dit word toegeskyf aan die “usual suspects” van beurtkrag, Transnet se logistieke bottelnekke en die gedempte vraag uit Sjina. Dit is egter nie maar net nog slegte nuus nie. Hierdie maandelikse aanwysers het ʼn belangrike plek in die groter prentjie.

Eerste sien ons so stukkie vir stukkie hoe die prentjie van die derde kwartaal se Bruto Binnelandse Produk lyk. Onthou, ekonome voorspel baie lae, maar darem positiewe ekonomiese groei vir die jaar. ʼn Inkrimping in die derde kwartaal kan daardie syfers in gedrag bring. Die BBP groei syfer word op ʼn klomp ander belangrike plekke gebruik. Byvoorbeeld sal die staatskuld-tot-BBP verhouding beter lyk as BBP groei.

Elke stukkie ekonomiese data is ook wat die Reserwebank gebruik vir die volgende repokoers-besluit. Hulle teiken is inflasie, maar hulle doel is om die repokoers so vas te stel dat dit neutraal is – met ander woorde, dat dit nie die ekonomie stimuleer of demp nie, en inflasie in die teikenband hou. Dit is dus vir hulle belangrik om te weet hoe dit met verbruikers en produsente gaan. Op die oomblik is die vraagkant van die ekonomie gedemp en die produksie-kant trek swaar. Vir hierdie rede die komende week se September kleinhandel- en groothandelsyfers ook belangrik want dit help ons om terug te kyk na die derde kwartaal en vorentoe na die repokoersbesluit.

Die resultate van die derde kwartaal se arbeidsmagopname word ook hierdie week bekend gemaak en Oktober se VPI syfer op 22 November.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek in Stellenbosch en die NWU Sakeskool.

Foute en weglatings is my eie.

The indicators are not just “more bad news”

Last week, Statistics South Africa released the manufacturing and mining sectors’ production and sales figures for September. Compared to September last year and compared to this August, production was lower. This is attributed to the “usual suspects” of load shedding, Transnet’s logistical bottlenecks and the weak demand from China. However, it is not just more bad news. These monthly indicators have an important place in the bigger picture.

Firstly, it helps to piece together the picture of what the third quarter’s Gross Domestic Product looks like. Remember, economists are predicting very low, but at least positive economic growth for this year. A contraction in the third quarter could bring those figures into doubt. Also, the GDP growth figure is used in a lot of other important places. For example, the government debt-to-GDP ratio would look better if GDP were growing fast.

Every piece of economic data is also what the Reserve Bank uses for the next repo rate decision. Their target is inflation, but their aim is to set the repo rate so that it is neutral – in other words, that it neither stimulates nor causes a contraction of the economy, and keeps inflation within the target band. It is therefore important for them to know how consumers and producers are doing. At the moment, the demand side of the economy is weak, and the production side is struggling. For this reason, the coming week’s September retail and wholesale figures are also important, because they help us look back to the third quarter and forward to the repo rate decision.

The results of the third quarter’s labour force survey are also released this week and October’s CPI figures on November 22.

This episode is supported by the Bureau of Economic Research in Stellenbosch and the NWU Business School.

Errors and omissions are my own.

Onderwys bepaal sosiale mobiliteit

Ekonome beklemtoon gereeld dat die ekonomie vinniger moet groei. Partykeer neem ons die argument verder en verduidelik dat ekonomiese groei moet lei tot ekonomiese ontwikkeling. Een maatstaf daarvan is of die volgende generasie beter daaraan toe is. Inkomste is een aspek daarvan, maar verwant daaraan is opleiding en ook die werk wat mense doen om hulle inkomste te kry.

Johan Fourie skryf onlangs in sy nuusbrief oor mobiliteit tussen generasies, spesifiek in terme van onderwys en opleiding. Mobiliteit gaan oor drie dinge: dat daar ʼn groter kans is vir kinders om ʼn hoër vlak van opleiding te behaal as hulle ouers, oor hoe die kinders se opleiding vergelyk met hulle eweknieë in dieselfde generasie, en watter persentasie van kinders in die top-25% van jare van onderwys lê as hulle ouers in die onderste 50% gelê het. Volgens al drie hierdie maatstawwe vaar Suid-Afrikaners wat in die 1970s en 80s gebore is, beter as hulle ouers. Dit is positief, maar kan grootliks toegeskryf word aan die opvang van die groot gaping in onderwys voor en na 1994. Om so aan te hou verbeter gaan moeiliker wees en vereis dat ons meer hulpbronne moet gebruik om kinders se gesondheid te bevorder, om leerling-tot-onderwyser syfers laer te kry, en om te keer dat kinders skool vroeg verlaat.

Interessante navorsing uit die Nederland wys dat om dieselfde werk te doen as ʼn ouer oor die algemeen nie ʼn sterk verwantskap het met inkomste nie. Die blootstelling en ervaring het nie veel van ʼn opbrengs nie, behalwe vir mediese dokters. Wanneer ʼn seun of ʼn dogter oor ʼn dokter word is hulle inkomste tot 25% meer as die wat nie uit ʼn mediese familie kom nie. Amerikaanse data wys weer wat die kans is dat ʼn getroude man en vrou dieselfde beroep volg. Vir dokters is die 17,9%, vir tandartse 13,5%, maar vir sielkundiges net 6,3%.

Aan my eerstejaarsklas wat volgende week eksamen skryf wil ek net sê byt vas – julle opleiding is vir ons almal belangrik.

Hierdie is episode 200 van 2023 en alles saam is so 25635 keer geluister. Baie dankie aan die borge wat die podsending ondersteun en almal wat saamluister.

Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Foute en weglatings is my eie.

Education matters for social mobility

Economists often stress that the economy has to grow faster. Sometimes we take the argument further and explain that economic growth must lead to economic development. One measure of that is whether the next generation is better off. Income is one aspect of it, but related to that is education and the work people do to get their income.

Johan Fourie recently wrote about mobility in terms of education and training outcomes between generations. Mobility is about three things: that there is a greater chance for children to achieve a higher level of education than their parents, how the children’s education compares with their peers in the same generation, and what percentage of children in the top 25% of years of education if their parents were in the bottom 50%. According to all three of these measures, South Africans born in the 1970s and 80s do better than their parents. This is positive, but can largely be attributed to closing the large gap in education before and after 1994. Continued improvement like this will be more difficult and will require us to use more resources to promote children’s health, to reduce pupil-to-teacher ratios, and to prevent children from dropping out of school early.

In other interesting research from the Netherlands, it is found that that doing the same job as a parent generally does not have a strong relationship with income. The exposure and experience do not have much of a return, except for medical doctors. When a son or daughter also becomes a doctor, their income is up to 25% more than those who do not come from a medical family. American data shows again what the chances are that a married man and woman have the same occupation. For doctors the figure is 17.9%, for dentists 13.5%, but for psychologists only 6.3%.

To my first-year class who are writing exams next week, I just want to say hang in there – your education is important to all of us.

This is episode 200 of 2023 and everything has been played 25635 times. Thanks to the sponsors who support the podcast and everyone who has been listening.

This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Errors and omissions are my own.